Agri Commodity Update (16-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean future turned sharply lower due to weaker demand scenario amid adequate stocks and sufficient supplies in the global market. Moreover, completion from rival cheaper soymeal exporting countries like US and South American nations may keep Indian soymeal exports lower. It may affect demand from oil millers pushing down the prices in near term. According to USDA’s Crop progress report, till 14th May’17 around 32% of the soybean sowing is completed as compared to 34% in previous year same duration and 32% on prior 5-year average. However, its production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y).

Coriander futures traded with a circuit note from last two days as participants offloaded their holdings, amid weak demand in the domestic spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position following increased arrivals from major growing regions also fuelled the downtrend. IMD has forecasted normal to higher monsoon rainfall during this year, which may support to significant rise in its acreage in the upcoming season. Therefore, considering the above factors, selling pressure in coriander futures likely to continue ahead.

Jeera futures traded on negative note for the day. Good supplies across major spot markets amid limited demand weighed down the sentiment of its prices. Additionally, expectations of good export demand for Indian jeera in the international market may limit the loss for jeera futures prices. As per trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

Mentha oil futures traded moderately higher as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agro-commodity amid surge in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions, too supported mentha oil prices.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Our sell call from 2890 to 2818 proven great and trading around 2830

Now what to expect???

Support was 2800 and resistance at 2870

Close below 2800 will take to 2760---2720 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2870 again.

Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2870 mark

Trade with levels only

Soyref

Support at 615 and Resistance 638---645

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645.

Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.

Jeera 

Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400

Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again

Trend- Sideways Lower

RM Seed 

Support at 3710 and resistance is 3790---3850

Momentum looks weak and could test its support. If prices gives daily close below 3710 will see a sharp downside panic towards 3665---3630.

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.

Turmeric

Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900

Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity. 

More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.

Cocudakl (June)

Our sell call from 1950---1911 proven great

Now what to expect???

Support seen at 1900 and resistance is at 1950

Close below 1900 will take to 1860---1825 mark else it may test its resistance of 1950 again

Trend- Sideways Lower

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 935 and resistance at 960

Close above 960 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 935 again.

Close below 935 will see again panic till 920---905 mark

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Support seen at 499 and resistance is 512---516+++

Close above 508 will take to 512---516 mark

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 499 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick – Sintex Industries

Technical View – Sintex Industries

Sintex Industries is finding support at 109 and resistance at 118. On Daily chart, Sintex Industries MACD & RSI showing positive momentum which indicates that upper side seems certain in it. Break and sustain above 109 will see nonstop rally in Sintex Industries till 125---135 and then 150++ in weeks to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 150+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 109 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation - Buy Sintex Industries above 118 for the initial upside target of 125—135 and then 150++ mark with stop loss below 109 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick – Engineers India Ltd

Technical View – Engineers India Ltd

Engineers India Ltd is finding support at 160 and resistance at 172. On Daily chart, Engineers India Ltd MACD & RSI showing positive momentum which indicates that upper side seems certain in it. Break and sustain above 172 will see nonstop rally in Engineers India Ltd till 190---200 and then 215++ in weeks to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 215+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 160 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Engineers India above 172 for the initial upside target of 190—200 and then 215++ mark with stop loss below 160 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 16th May 2017

Nifty 9,445/Sensex 30,322 / Bank Nifty 22,821

32 Advances / 19 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Indian benchmarks settle with moderate cuts; Sensex slips below 30,200 mark*

Indian stock markets witnessed a fairly stable day of trade on Monday as sanguinity got reinforced after consumer inflation in April eased to its lowest in at least five years, reviving a debate on whether the central bank should cut interest rates. Hopes for further easing of inflation got a boost with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stating that monsoon rains had reached the country's Andaman and Nicobar islands ahead of the schedule. Meanwhile, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation eased to 2.99% in April, from 3.89% in March, due to lower cost of food items. Also, the inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) slipped to a four-month low of 3.85% in April as both food articles and manufactured items showed cooling in prices. The street shrugged off industrial output growth data which slipped to 2.7% in March compared to 5.5% in March 2016, mainly on account of poor performance of manufacturing sector. 

Adding the optimism among market participants, the private report indicated that trustees of retirement fund body EPFO are likely to raise the investment limit in exchange traded funds (ETFs) to 15% of the investible deposits, from 10% at present, in the current fiscal. The higher limit would help the Employees’ Provident Fund Organization’s (EPFO) park around Rs 15,000 crore in stock markets in 2017-18 as its investible deposits are close to Rs 1 lakh crore annually. Some support also came with the report that Private equity investments saw a significant upturn in April with deals worth $ 3.16 billion, up 69 per cent from a year ago, due to big ticket transactions. From a 32-month low recorded in February this year, the deal tally in April represents a significant bounce back both in terms of number of deals as well as value. According to the report, there were 86 PE deals worth $ 3.16 billion in last month, while 63 such transactions worth $ 1.87 billion were announced in April last year.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Monday as oil prices jumped and weak US data raised a question mark over the extent of Fed tightening. Yet another missile launch by North Korea too appeared to have little impact, while upbeat talk on trade and infrastructure investment at a top-level conference in China brightened sentiment. Oil prices jumped after Saudi Arabia's energy minister and Russia's oil minister said at a joint briefing in Beijing that they agreed output cuts should be extended to March 2018. However, Japanese shares closed marginally lower, pressured by a stronger yen, a widespread cyber-attack and North Korea's missile test over the weekend. Meanwhile, European markets were trading mixed in early trade as a ransom ware attack that locked up more than 200,000 computers in over 150 countries, kept investors on edge.

Back home, after getting a firm start, the local benchmarks protected their gains throughout the session and ended the first trading day of the week on optimistic note.   The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, got buttressed by close to half a percent to settle above the crucial 9,400 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index-Sensex accumulated over hundred points and closed above the psychological 30,300 mark. Broader markets managed a touch better than the larger peers today as the BSE’s midcap and small cap indices settled with gains of 1.25% and 0.78% respectively.  The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1483 shares on the gaining side against 1297 shares on the losing side, while 209 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 15-May-17

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4782.52 crore against gross selling of Rs 3866.47 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 916.05 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2347.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 503.00 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1844.51 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9280 and Resistance at 9450.

Above 9450 rally remain continue till 9520---9580+++ mark else will it could test its support level of 9280 again.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22550 and resistance at 23075

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 23075. Close above 23075 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22550 again.

Today's Top Pick

Carborundum Universal

Support at 292 and Resistance at 311

Above 311 will see upside rally till 330---340+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 292

Results Today

Andhra Bank

Shree Cements Limited

Tata Steel Limited

Punjab National Bank

Oracle Financial Services Software Limited

Grasim Industries Limited

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 15th May 17

                        

Gold futures edged higher on Monday as weaker-than-expected economic data from the US and a missile test by North Korea over the weekend weighed on risk appetite and pressured the dollar. US data showed a smaller-than-expected 0.4 percent increase in April retail sales from the previous month, while a disappointing report on consumer prices raised concerns about the retail sector and the broader economy.

Crude oil futures traded higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity after the energy ministers of the world's two biggest producers Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly said that a crude production cut would be extended from the middle of this year until March 2018.

Copper futures traded higher on MCX after participants widened their positions on the back of pick-up in domestic demand at the spot market. Further, firm trend in the base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) despite weak industrial output data from China too fuelled the uptrend. Reports showed that China's factory output rose 6.5 per cent in April from a year earlier, while fixed-asset investment grew 8.9 per cent in the first four months of the year, both worse than expectations.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 27900 and Resistance at 28250---28400

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss.

Silver

Above 38400...Rally remain continue till 38700---39000 and then to 39700 mark in days to come

Support and stop loss intact at 38000---37700.

Crude 

Support at 3080 and Resistance at 3200. 

Looks positive can could touch its resistance level of 3200. Break and close above 3200 will see further upside rally in it else it could test its support level of 3080 again.

Further downside panic will see on close below 3080 mark.

Natural Gas

Support at 215.50 and Resistance at 221

Break and sustain above 221 will take it to 226—230+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 215.50 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 215.50

Copper 

Support at 356 and Resistance at 365

Looks positive could touch its resistance level of 365. Close above 365 will take it to 371---375+++ mark else could touch its support level of 356 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 356 mark.

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Empire State Manufacturing Index: Forecast 5.2 Previous 7.2 Actual??

Impact – Increase in Empire State Manufacturing Index – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 15th May 2017

Rupee strengthens on selling of American currency by banks and exporters

Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar on Monday on account of selling of American currency by banks and exporters. Rupee improved further on positive economic data after retail inflation fell sharply to 2.99 percent in April from 3.90 percent in March, while inflation based on the wholesale price index slipped to a four-month low of 3.85 percent in April. Further, a higher opening in domestic stocks and continuous foreign capital inflows too kept the rupee on a firm ground. But the dollar's strength against some currencies overseas capped the rupee's gains.

USDINR (May)

Support at 64.10 and Resistance at 64.85—64.90

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 64.10, Close below 64.10 will take it to 63.80—63.55 else could touch its resistance level of 64.85—64.90 mark.

Further upside rally will see above 64.90 only.

GBP-INR

Support at 82.70 and Resistance at 83.30 

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 83.30, Break and sustain above 83.30 will take it to 83.70—83.90 and then to 84.20++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 82.70

Fresh selling can be initiated below 82.70 mark.

EURINR

Support at 70.00 and Resistance at 70.45

Close above 70.45 will take it to 70.70—71.00 and then to 71.30++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 70.00 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 70.00

JPYINR

Support at 56.50 and Resistance at 56.95

Close below 56.60 will take it to 56.30—56.00 mark else could touch its resistance level of 56.95

Further upside rally will see on close above 56.95 mark.

More will update soon!!

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Our Technical Investment Pick - Bharat Financial moving towards north direction!! Read report again!!

👀 Look at our Technical Investment Pick Bharat Financial .... Slowly and steadily moving towards north direction⬆⬆

Hope you all read our report carefully. We have provided you FREE copy of same on 29th April 2017..... Missed link of report?? Then here it is download your FREE Copy from below given link.

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