⁠⁠⁠Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 12th May 2017

Nifty 9,422/Sensex 30,250 / Bank Nifty 22,818

29 Advances / 22 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Indian benchmarks settle with moderate gains; market breadth negative*

It turned out to be a session of moderate gains for the Indian stock markets, which came off the highest point of the day in dying hours of trade as investors booked profits in recent outperformers such as Bharti Airtel and Hindustan Unilever, while negative opening in European markets also capped gains. However, the benchmarks managed to settle at record closing highs for the second straight session as local sentiments continued to show signs of improvement amid optimism over Indian Meteorological Department's prediction of a 'normal' monsoon this calendar. IMD said that the prospects of the monsoon have brightened due to reduced chances of El-Nino. With results of several front line stocks due over the course of the next few sessions and the data on industrial output and consumer price inflation due on Friday, the mood was slightly cautious. Furthermore, with the indices and various blue chip stocks hovering around all-time highs, market participants are looking for some direction to build up significant positions. Investors remained cautious with the RBI's data suggesting that new financial year began on a sour note for bank credit growth, which slipped to 4.32% in the fortnight to April 28, much lower than the 63-year low level of 5.08% in FY17. However, sentiments got some support with the report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is setting up a task force under the chairmanship of the Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog Dr Arvind Panagriya, with an aim to create policies on employment based on credible data. The Prime Minister has directed that this task be expedited so that policies on employment can be formulated with a proper appreciation of impacts, based on credible data. Meanwhile, Auto stocks surged on expectations of lower interest rates after a better monsoon forecast eased inflation fears in a country that depends heavily on rains to irrigate its farmlands.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Thursday as global equities remained at record levels and a rebound in oil boosted energy producers. Chinese shares ended higher, led by gains in realty and infrastructure stocks, after reports suggested that the central bank is likely to inject funds via its medium-term lending facility on Friday. Also, Japanese market eked out some gains as crude prices inched higher and the yen held steady around the 114 level following the release of strong trade and investment data. However, European markets were under pressure as investors reacted to the latest batch of corporate earnings.

Back home, the local benchmarks got off to an encouraging start tracking the optimism prevailing in Asian markets as a rebound in oil boosted energy producers. The frontline indices soon gathered momentum and traded with over quarter percent gains through the morning session of trade. However, the bourses witnessed intense selling pressure in a volatile afternoon session after surging to all-time highs in initial trade. The frontline indices treaded on a southbound journey thereafter as investors gradually started taking profits off the table, which led the benchmarks to snap Thursday's session around low point of the day. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with trivial gains of fifteen points above the psychological 9,400 levels, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex shed three points and closed above the psychological 30,200 mark. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1247 shares on the gaining side against 1583 shares on the losing side, while 162 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 11-May-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9717.64 crore against gross selling of Rs 8352.72 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1364.92 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 678.91 crore with gross sales of Rs 562.70 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 116.21 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9280 and Resistance at 9450.

Above 9450 rally remain continue till 9520---9580+++ mark else will it could test its support level of 9280 again.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22550 and resistance at 23075

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 23075. Close above 23075 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22550 again.

Results Today

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited

Titan Company Limited

Piramal Enterprises Limited

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Century Textiles & Industries Limited

13-May-2017

The Karnataka Bank Limited

Idea Cellular Limited

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 11th May 2017

Rupee strengthens on fresh selling of US currency by exporters

Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar on Thursday with fresh selling of the US currency by exporters amid foreign fund inflows and a higher opening in the domestic equities market. Besides, a weak dollar overseas also supported the rupee. Forex market remained closed yesterday on account of 'Buddha Purnima’. On the global front, the dollar edged lower after notching an eight week high against the yen on Thursday in Asian trade, while the New Zealand dollar tumbled after its central bank suggested a tightening was further out than markets had priced in.

USDINR (May)

USDINR…unable to breach resistance level of 65.00 and slipped.

Now what to expect??

Support at 64.45 and Resistance at 65.00

Close below 64.45 will take it to 64.15---64.00 mark else could touch its resistance level of 65.00 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 65.00

GBP-INR

Hurdle at 83.90, Break and sustain above 83.90 will take it to 84.15—84.30++ mark.

Support intact at 83.50 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 83.50

EURINR

Below 70.40, panic remain continue till 70.20—70.00 and then to 69.85 mark, Else could touch its resistance level of 70.65.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 70.65

JPYINR

We recommended selling in JPY/INR below 57.05, it crashed and made low of 56.62.

Now what to expect??

Below 56.70 panic remain continue till 56.30—55.90 mark.

Hurdle at 57.00

More will update soon!!

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Agri Commodity Update (11-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures traded in a thin range with a downbeat tone, despite good meal exports data. Meanwhile, strong soybean demand from top importer China helped to support the market. Reports showed that China imported 8 million tons of soybeans in April, an increase of 13.4% year on year. As per the latest forecast by IMD, India may receive higher monsoon rainfall as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased in the past few weeks. Arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55,133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market.

Jeera futures traded in a narrow range with a lower bias as speculators engaged in trimming positions amid lower domestic and exports demand at the spot market. Furthermore, huge stocks at the spot markets following higher supplies from the major growing belt in Gujarat and Rajasthan too fuelled the downtrend. As per the trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

NCDEX Turmeric prices recovered almost 4% in last two days after plunge more than 11% last week. The sharp recovery was seen due to lower level buying and on expectation that the prices have touched its floor for the season.  During the current season there was lower demand from industrial buyers and higher stocks available in the country. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tonnes as compared with the 20,703 tonnes reported during April (1-7).

Mentha oil futures traded marginally lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity amid muted demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing region of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support at 2900 and resistance at 2960-- 3005

Looks sideways and its likely to trade within the levels.

Break and sustain below 2900 will take it to 2865—2830 and then to 2770 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 2960-3005 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 2960 mark.

Soyref

Support at 615 and Resistance 632---638.

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645

Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 615 again

Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.

Trade with levels only

Dhaniya (June)

We still maintained our selling view below 6900 for 5300.

Support at 5650 and Resistance is 6050

Break and close below 5650 will see further downside move till 5300

Dead cat bounce may happen... But trend looks extreme weak on charts 

 Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17850 and resistance at 18700.

Trading in a narrow range from last couple of days. We will wait for either side break out which will set the further trend.

Close below 17850 will see a sharp downside panic till 17450---17150 else it could touch its resistance level of 18700 again

Be cautious at upper levels.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed (June)

Support at 3700 and resistance is 3760---3790

Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3700 will see a sharp downside towards 3655---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3760---3790 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3760 mark

Trade in a range with levels only

TMC (June)

Crucial support is 5480 and resistance is 5850

Looks positive and every decline till 5480 we will accumulate the position. 

More power will see above 5850 will take to 6050 mark else could break its support level of 5480 again.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5480

 Trade with levels only

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1950 and resistance is at 2035

Looks weak and close below 1950 will take to 1910---1865 mark else it may test its resistance of 2035 again

Fresh buying can be seen only below 2035 mark

Trend- Sideways Lower

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 905 and resistance at 940

Looks weak and two consecutive close below 905 will see further weakness till 888---875 mark else could test it resistance level of 940 again, where once fresh round of selling can be seen.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Our target was 505. Made a high of 504.40 today. 

What to expect??

Weekly close above 505 could see more power towards 514---524+++ else it could test its support level of 495----492 again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 492 mark. 

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick– Apollo Tyres

Technical View – Apollo Tyres

Apollo tyre is finding support at 225 and resistance at 237. On weekly chart, Apollo tyre trading above 21 and 55 days exponential moving average which is at 201 and 118 respectively while MACD too showing positive momentum which indicates that upper side seems certain in it. Break and sustain above 237 on closing basis will see nonstop rally in Apollo tyre till 245---255++ in weeks to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 255+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 225 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation 

Buy Apollo tyre above 237 for the initial upside target of 245—255++ mark with stop loss below 225 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 11th May 2017

Nifty 9,407/Sensex 30,248 / Bank Nifty 22,830

33 Advances / 18 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Indian benchmarks stage a remarkable rally; Nifty ends over 9,400 mark*

Euphoric Indian equities showcased an impressive performance on Wednesday by conquering the crucial 9,400 (Nifty) and 30,200 (Sensex) levels, as shares of consumer goods and agriculture-dependent companies rallied after the country's weather office forecast a higher monsoon rainfall than previously expected. India looks likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased in the past few weeks, the chief of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth. El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years and was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods, faded in 2016. Sentiments also got a leg up after data showed that foreign funds, which were net sellers on the Indian bourses for the past few sessions, made fresh purchases in yesterday's trade. Foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 333 crore in Tuesday's session. Some support also came with the report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reviewed progress of key infrastructure sectors including petroleum and natural gas, power, renewable energy and housing. The Prime Minister called for greater emphasis on ethanol blending, and evolution of mechanisms so that farmers can benefit the most from this process. Investors also took some encouragement with the private report that Indian business leaders are the most confident among the world's 10 largest economies. The confidence of Indian leaders rose 3.2 points to 66 in the first quarter of 2017, reversing the decline seen in the fourth quarter of 2016, when confidence dipped in the immediate aftermath of the government's decision to invalidate old high-value currency notes.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mixed on Wednesday as investors digested corporate earnings and US President Donald Trump's abrupt dismissal of FBI Director James Comey. Tensions surrounding North Korea also kept underlying sentiment cautious. Japanese market ended higher, shrugging off concerns surrounding regional security and political developments in the US. The yen weakened against the dollar, helping lift exporters' shares. On the other hand, South Korean stocks led losers as investors took profits after liberal leader Moon Jae-in was elected president, while Chinese shares closed lower after factory gate prices ion the world's second-biggest economy cooled more than expected in April. Meanwhile, most of the European counterparts traded with a negative bias and France's CAC shed around quarter percent, being the biggest laggard in the space.

Back home, the benchmark got off to a positive start in the morning trade as investors were largely influenced by the supportive leads from Asian markets. Thereafter, the frontline indices slowly but steadily started gathering steam and surged by over half a percent by late morning trades. The bourses further capitalized on the momentum and spurted in afternoon trades on the back of broad based bottom fishing in undervalued stocks. Eventually, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, got buttressed by close to a percent to settle above the crucial 9,400 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index-Sensex accumulated over three hundred points and closed above the psychological 30,200 mark. The broader markets largely mirrored their larger peers as the BSE's midcap index went home with 0.87% gains, while the small cap index could only manage 0.75%. The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1627 shares on the gaining side against 1220 shares on the losing side, while 174 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 10-May-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3364.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 3945.75 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 581.35 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1203.77 crore with gross sales of Rs 163.73 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1040.04 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9280 and Resistance at 9450.

Above 9450 rally remain continue till 9520---9580+++ mark else will it could test its support level of 9280 again.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22550 and resistance at 22930

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 22930. Close above 22930 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22500 again.

Today's Top Pick

Coromandel International

Support at 390 and Resistance at 411

Above 411 will see upside rally till 430---440+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 390

Results Today

Arvind Limited

HCL Technologies Limited

Havells India Limited

Granules India Limited

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited

Asian Paints Limited

More will update soon!!

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