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Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Currency Report 09th May 2017







* Rupee weakens on increased demand for American currency from importers*

Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar on Tuesday on account of increased demand for the American currency from importers amid sustained foreign fund outflows. Rupee fell further as the dollar gained strength against other currencies overseas, as investors raised expectations of another US interest rate hike next month. However, a firm domestic equity market restricted the rupee’s losses. On the global front, the euro pulled back from recent six-month highs on Tuesday, but remained well-supported as fading worries over political populism and signs of improving economic conditions in Europe bolstered investor confidence.


USDINR 






Above 64.60 rally remain continue 65.00—65.30++ mark in days to come.

Support and stop loss intact at 64.20.


GBPINR




Yesterday we recommended buy in GBPINR around 83.50…it flared and made high of 83.67. We booked profit around 83.63.

Now what to expect??

Hurdle at 83.75. Close above 83.75 will take it to 83.90—84.00 and then to 84.15+++ mark in days to come.

Support at 83.25



EURINR





Support at 70.40 and Resistance at 71.00

Trend looks weak and could touch its support level of 70.40 mark.

Break and sustain below 70.40 will take it to 70.10—69.80 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 71.00 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 71.00


JPYINR




Support at 57.05 and Resistance 57.60


Close below 57.05 will take it to 56.70---56.30 and then to 55.90 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 57.60 mark again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 57.60













More will update soon!!

Technical Pick - RECLTD





We recommendated RECLTD looks positive above 208...

It achieved our both the targets 213 & 218

Look at the screenshot










Now what to expect ??


Technical View – RECLTD







RECLTD is finding support at 212 and resistance at 222. On weekly chart, RECLTD trading above 21 and 55 days exponential moving average which is at 164 and 131 respectively while RSI and MACD too showing positive momentum which indicates that upper side seems certain in it. Break and sustain above 222 will see nonstop rally in RECLTD till 225---227 and then to 232++ mark in days to come.


Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 232+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 212 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.




Trading Recommendation



Buy RECLTD above 222 for the initial upside target of 225--227 and then 232++ mark with stop loss below 212 on closing basis.














More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 9th May 2017









Nifty 9,314/Sensex 29,926 / Bank Nifty 22,767

33 Advances / 18 Declines/ 0 Unchanged



* Indian stock markets settle with moderate gains; Nifty reclaims 9300 mark*
Indian stock markets witnessed a fairly stable day of trade on Monday, as investors' sentiments around the globe turned optimistic after Emmanuel Macron was elected French president with a business-friendly vision of European integration, defeating Marine Le Pen, a far-right nationalist who threatened to take France out of the European Union. On the domestic front, sentiments got a boost after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley ruled out any surprises in the tax rates in the Goods & Services Tax (GST) that is proposed to be rolled out on July 1 and also assured that there will be no cascading in goods and commodities, which can even see tax rates coming down a little. The finance minister chaired GST council is scheduled to finalise and approve the rates of different commodities and services on May 18-19. Adding the optimism among investors, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said the soon to be rolled out GST regime will help the country to grow close to 8 percent in next fiscal 2018-19. He also stated that the GST will club nearly a dozen central and state levies into a single national sales tax, helping the country integrate into one market. Some support also came with the report that India is planning to revamp its foreign trade policy and relook at incentives to give a leg up to the export sector, which is hurt by lower global demand as well as an appreciating rupee. The government proposes to come out with a mid-term review of the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2015-20 in September. However, gains remained capped with the report that India's FDI inflow momentum may slow down this year and exports too may not revive with 'full gusto' as domestic bottlenecks remain.
On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Monday, as risk appetite firmed after pro-European Union candidate Emmanuel Macron comfortably won French presidential elections and energy prices rebounded. Sentiments improve further after a better-than-expected US employment report helped lift the benchmark S&P 500 Index to a record high in the previous session. The US benchmark crude oil contract rose 1.5% on Friday after Saudi Arabia's energy minister reportedly said OPEC's production cuts, due to end in June, will likely be extended till the end of 2017. However, Chinese markets extended a four-week losing streak amid ongoing concerns about tighter regulations and tepid economic data. Official data showed that Chinese exports advanced an annual 14.3 percent in yuan terms in April. The pace of growth was weaker than the expected 16.8 percent. Likewise, imports grew 18.6 percent, but slower than the 29.3 percent rise economists had forecast. Meanwhile, European equities dipped, with French shares, which hit 9 1/2-year highs on Friday, underperforming the wider market.
On the global front, the local benchmarks started the session on firm note, tracking the gains on Wall Street following the release of better-than-expected US jobs data. Thereafter, the frontline indices managed to gain traction and touched the intraday highs in the late morning trade. However, the key gauges suffered a setback in afternoon trades as sudden bouts of profit booking emerged in the local markets immediately after a somber European market opening. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty garnered over quarter percent to settle above the crucial 9,300 levels, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex accumulated sixty-seven points and closed above the psychological 29,900 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too went home with notable gains in the session.



FII’s Activity 8-May-17


The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4937.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 5185.66 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 248.25 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2327.63 crore with gross sales of Rs 424.16 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1903.47 crore in debt.


Now what to expect next??







Nifty Levels







Support at 9240 and Resistance at 9380---9450.
Above 9330 rally remain continue till 9380---9450 mark. 

Support intact at 9240. Close below 9240 will take to 9180---9130 mark. Major support intact at 9080


Bank Nifty Levels





Support at 22550 and resistance at 22930
Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 22930.

Close above 22930 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22550 again.


Today's Top Pick


TECHM



Support at 412 and Resistance at 422

Above 422 will see upside rally till 433---440+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 410




Results Today

Bharti Airtel Limited

Syndicate Bank

Petronet LNG Limited

InterGlobe Aviation Limited

Godrej Consumer Products Limited

















More will update soon!!

Monday, May 8, 2017

70% chance of El Nino effect on South-West monsoon : WRMS





The chances of the El Nino phenomenon impacting the South West monsoon at its peak across India are 60 to 70 per cent, says Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS).


El Nino, which refers to the formation of warm water undercurrents in the Pacific Ocean, has been known to have an adverse effect on global weather patterns and occasionally affect the rainfall during the Indian monsoon season.


At the same time, another important parameter, called the Indian Ocean Dipole, is predicted to evolve towards a warm phase, which normally bestows a positive effect on the monsoon.


In view of these mixed developments, the monsoon rainfall during 2017 could be moderately on the negative side of the long-period range.


Giving these details to the media, Kanti Prasad, Head of Meteorological Services at the New Delhi-based WRMS and former technical director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said, “Large parts of North India, particularly North West India, may experience deficiency in overall precipitation, whereas the southern regions are expected to receive normal to excess rainfall”.


He was participating in a WRMS-organised seminar on ‘Insurance for covering seed germination and production risks’. The interpretation is based on information available from prominent World Climate Centres, the Climate Forecast System model, which the organisation uses to provide climate change-related risk management services, including weather forecasts in 15 countries, a press release said.


The impact of El nino on Monsoon rainfall could be in the later phase or late August-September.The monsoon will arrive near its expected date on June 1 over India and its distribution will be good helping sowing operations, Prasad said.


By mid-April 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO-neutral state), with above-average SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. The warm ocean temperature is gradually spreading westward, he added.


In mid-April, the IMD had in its annual forecast of the Long Range Forecast for Monsoon 2017 said the country will receive normal rains during the SW monsoon run between June 1 to September 30. The weather office said the rainfall will be 96 per of the long-period average (LPA), with a 38 per cent probability that monsoon will be near normal.


The IMD and a couple of private weather forecasters have developed medium-range forecasts of 15-45 days’ periodicity, which will offer more reliable region-wise rainfall forecasts, said Sonu Agrawal Founder of WRMS.














Source: WRMS






Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 08th May 17








Gold futures edged higher on Monday after centrist Emmanuel Macron matched opinion poll expectations and beat anti-EU far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and as investors looked ahead to China trade data. Investors will also be looking ahead to Friday’s US data on inflation and retail sales to gauge if the economy is on a strong enough footing for another rate hike as soon as next month.


Crude oil futures traded marginally higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity on expectation that the OPEC-led production cut likely to extend beyond 2017.

Copper futures edged down on MCX due to offloading of positions by participants tracking weak global cues and low demand at the domestic spot markets.



Technical Level



Gold 






Support at 28020---27900 and Resistance at 28250

Break and sustain above 28250 will take it to 28500---28650+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 28020—27900 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 27900 mark.


Silver 







Support at 37800 and Resistance 38700

Close below 37800 will take to 37500—37300 and then to 36800 mark else could touch its resistance level of 38700 mark again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 38700 only.



Crude 






Support at 2950 and Resistance at 3025

Close below 2950 will take it to 2900—2880 and then to 2830 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 3025 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 3025 only




Natural Gas




Support at 201 and Resistance at 209---213.50


Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.



Copper 






Support at 356 and Resistance at 363

Close below 356 will take it to 350---345 and then 335 mark in days to come, else could touch its resistance level of 363

Fresh buying can be initiated above 363















More will update soon!!

Currency Report 08th May 2017







Rupee strengthens on fresh selling of American currency by exporters and banks

Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar on Monday on account of fresh selling of the American currency by exporters and banks. Besides, a firm domestic equity market and fresh bout of foreign fund inflows too added support to domestic unit. However, the dollar’s recovery against some currencies overseas on a strong US jobs report restricted the rupees’ up move. On the global front, the euro pulled away from highs hit early in the Asian session on Monday as investors took profits from its gains after centrist Emmanuel Macron's victory over the far-right Marine Le Pen in France's presidential election.


USDINR (May)







Support at 64.20 and Resistance at 64.60

Close below 64.20 will take it to 64.00—63.90 mark else could touch its resistance level of 64.60 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.60 level only.




GBPINR








Support at 82.80 and Resistance at 83.75

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.


EURINR







Above 70.80 rally remain continue and could touch 71.10---71.40 and then to 71.80 mark else it could touch its support level of 70.40 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 70.40


JPYINR






Support at 57.00 and Resistance 57.60


Close below 57.00 will take it to 56.70---56.30 and then to 55.90 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 57.60 mark again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 57.60














More will update soon!!