Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 2nd Feb 2018
Nifty 11016 /Sensex 35906/ Bank Nifty 27220
27 Advances / 23 Declines/ 0 Unchanged
Budget fails to cheer Dalal Street; Markets end marginally lower
Budget session turned out to be a quiet day of trade with Sensex and Nifty ending marginally lower after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley proposed a long-term capital gains tax. However, markets made firm start and traded with traction ahead of budget as traders took support with report that the Central Statistics Office revised the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2015-16 to 8.2% from the earlier estimates of 8% and kept the 2016-17 growth unchanged at 7.1%. The real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2016-17 and 2015-16 stands at Rs 121.96 lakh crore and Rs 113.86 lakh crore respectively, showing growth of 7.1% during 2016-17 and 8.2% during 2015-16. But, once the Finance Minister started announcing budget, markets witnessed a sharp sell-off and even breached their crucial 35,600 (Sensex) and 10,900 (Nifty) levels after Arun Jaitley proposed to levy long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) of 10% on gains exceeding Rs 100,000 from sale of equity shares. Moreover, finance minister Arun Jaitley revised the fiscal deficit for FY18 to 3.5% from 3.2% targeted earlier.
Selling proved short-lived and markets got strong support near those levels and pared all of their losses to back into green terrain. However, selling in last leg of trade dragged markets slightly in red, as investors remained concerned with report that India’s core sector output grew at a slower pace of 4.0% in December 2017, from 7.4% in November 2017, on the back of declining coal and crude oil output. According to the data released by the ministry of Commerce and Industry showed the combined Index of eight core industries stood at 129.1 in December, 2017, which was 4.0% higher compared to the index of December, 2016.
Meanwhile, consumers are continuing to hold back on discretionary spending with categories such as television, home appliances, fashion, lifestyle and apparel posting poor sales in the October-December quarter, with no recovery in sight in January as well, despite almost all brands and retailers running end-of-season and Republic Day sales.
On the global front, European markets were trading in green in early deals following three days of losses, supported by a flurry of mostly positive results and gains by banks. The euro zone’s booming manufacturing industry raced into 2018, churning out goods last month at one of the fastest paces in over 20 years, a survey showed, suggesting the economic recovery still has momentum. Asian markets exhibited mixed trend after the US Federal Reserve left its key rate unchanged, as widely expected, but set the stage for a rate hike at its next meeting in March.
Back home, Aviation stocks flied higher as govt planning to expand airport capacity by 5 times to 1 billion trips a year. Most of the Healthcare stocks edged higher as govt allocated Rs 1,200 crore for Specialised Health Wellness Centre. Railway stocks showed mixed reactions as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s proposal to increase railway capex failed to enthuse investors. The minister proposed to increase railway capex to Rs 1.48 lakh crore in FY19, up 13 per cent over Rs 1.31 lakh crore for FY18. Textile companies too failed to draw solace with FM Arun Jaitley’s quantum of fund allocation to the textile sector in the Union Budget speech 2018-19. The finance minister announced that the government will allocate Rs 7,148 crore for the sector.
FII’s Activity 1st -Feb-18
The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7080.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 7344.98 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 264.88 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1915.27 crore with gross sales of Rs 1143.25 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 772.02 crore in debt.
In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.07 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1.02 crore in hybrid segment.
Now what to expect ??
Nifty and Bank Nifty Levels
Yesterday's high and low is very crucial for the market because we of high volatility during budget session. Today we will wait for the day to get proper entry in the market.
More levels will provide during market hours.
Daily Derivative Outlook 2nd February 2018
• Nifty (February) futures closed at a Premium of 14.40 points versus a Premium of 27.70.
• ESCORTD (23%), CEATLTD (18%), BEL (13%), IDBI (13%) and APOLLOTYRE (11%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.
• JISLJALEQS (-19%), TORNTPHARM (-10%), MANAPPURAM (-9%), FORTIS (-9%) and MINDTREE (-8%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.
• Maximum call writing was seen at Nifty 11500 strike and maximum put writing was seen at Nifty 10800 strikes.
• Maximum positions are at 11500 CE and 10500 PE.
• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 0.95 for February month contract.
• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.33, Advance (53) + Decline (161) + Unchanged (3) = 217
Derivative Idea (02-02-2018)
SBI gain around 4.00% of open interest as short build up on Thursday’s trade.
Support at 305, Below 305 panic remain continue till 290—285 and then to 270 mark else could touch its support level of 320.00
Fresh selling can be initiated below 320.00
Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.
Trading Recommendation (2nd Feb 2018)
Sell SBI future below 305 with stop loss of 320 for the initial target 290--285 and then to 270 mark.
Results Today
Bajaj Auto Limited
United Breweries Limited
Tata Global Beverages Limited
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
Hindalco Industries Limited
More Will Update Soon!!
