Friday, February 16, 2018

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 16th Feb 2018

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 16th Feb 2018

Nifty 10545 /Sensex 34155 / Bank Nifty 25424

30 Advances /19 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Benchmarks end higher on easing WPI inflation

Thursday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks, with frontline gauges settling just shy of their crucial 10,550 (Nifty) and 34,300 (Sensex) levels. Markets after an optimistic start gained momentum and traded jubilantly on private report that the RBI’s revised framework for quicker and time-bound resolution of stressed assets is a long-term positive for banks. The report stated that the new framework has the potential to bring about a big change in the approach of banks to monitor their exposures and resolution of NPAs. Markets managed to reconquer their psychological 10,600 (Nifty) and 34,500 (Sensex) levels in noon deals after India's inflation on wholesale level softened for the second consecutive month in January 2018. Wholesale price inflation (WPI) stood at 2.84 percent (provisional) in January as against 3.58 percent (provisional) for the previous month and 4.26 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 2.30 percent compared to a build up rate of 4.55 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Despite some profit booking in last leg of trade, markets managed to end the session with a gain of around half a percent as sentiments remained up-beat with Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian’s statement that although India has made a lot of progress towards achieving financial inclusion, a lot more needs to be done. He added that providing essential goods and services to citizens was only the first policy step towards financial inclusion. Meanwhile, a private report highlighted that consumption is reviving as the effect of demonetization fades and companies get used to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), with some recording multi-quarter highs in volume and sales in the October-December period, exceeding street expectations.

Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments, as investors appeared to take stronger-than-anticipated US inflation data in their stride. Asian markets ended mostly in green, led by around one and a half percent gain in Japanese Nikkei despite the country’s core machinery orders tumbled in December at the fastest pace in more than three years.

Back home, a report showed that India Inc reported strong earnings growth in the December 2017 quarter after declines in the previous two quarters. This was largely expected given the lower base effect due to demonetization in the year-ago quarter. In the December quarter, net profit of a sample of 2,043 companies rose to a six quarter high of 27.5% year-on-year. Net sales rose by 11.5%. After excluding oil and gas companies along with banks and finance entities, sales and profit growth in the December 2017 quarter was 8.8% and 25%, respectively. In scrip specific development, Punjab National Bank (PNB) continued to remain under pressure after Enforcement Directorate reportedly told that PNB fraud is bigger than Rs 11,000 crore. Enforcement Directorate is likely to soon get in touch with other banks involved. Apart from PNB, Union Bank, Axis Bank, Allahabad Bank and SBI Overseas Bank are involved in the fraud.

FII’s Activity 15th-Feb-18

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6464.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 7063.33 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 599.02 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 755.10 crore with gross sales of Rs 2362.33 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1607.23 crore in debt.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.14 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.47 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net seller of Rs 0.33 crore in hybrid segment.

Now what to expect ??

Image result for happy friday quotes

Nifty Levels 

Image result for nifty

Resistance at 10600 and support at 10450. 

 Break and close above 10600 will take it to 10750---10820 mark else it could test it's support level of 10450 again

Trade with levels only

Bank Nifty 

Image result for nifty bank

Support at 25250. Break and sustain below 25250 will take it to 25000---24900.

Resistance intact at 25600

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 16th February 2018

Nifty (February) futures closed at a Premium of 5.70 points versus a Discount of 5.70.

APOLLOHOSP (22%), PNB (20%), REPCOHOME (11%), DCBBANK (10%) and APOLLOTYRE (9%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest

NESTLEIND (-20%), CANFINHOME (-14%), CEATLTD (-12%), ORIENTBANK (-9%) and BANKINDIA (-9%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.

Maximum call writing was seen at Nifty 10600 strike and maximum put writing was seen at Nifty 10500 strikes.

Maximum positions are at 11100 CE and 10000 PE.

The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.13 for February month contract.
Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.53, Advance (73) + Decline (139) + Unchanged (5) = 217

Derivative Idea (16-02-2018)

Apollo Hospital gain around 22.00% of open interest as long build up on Thursday’s trade. 

Above 1220 rally remain continue till 1300—1330++ mark else could touch its support level of 1150

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1150

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation (16 Feb 2018)

Image result for Apollo Hospital

Buy Apollo Hospital future above 1220 with stop loss of 1150 for the initial target 1300—1330++ mark.

Corporate action-Ex-date

Marico Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 2.50 Per Share (Purpose Revised)

National Aluminium Company Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 4.70 Per Share (Purpose Revised)

Hexaware Technologies Limited-Interim Dividend Re 1/- Per Share

Sun TV Network Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 2.5 Per Share (Purpose Revised)

More will update soon!!