Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 30th Jan 2018

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 30th Jan 2018

Nifty 11130 /Sensex 36283/ Bank Nifty 27498

28 Advances / 22 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Benchmarks end at fresh record high levels; Nifty conquers 11,100 marks

Indian equity benchmarks ended at fresh record high levels on Monday, after a government report predicted growth would accelerate in the coming fiscal year. Markets started the session with a gap-up opening and traded firmly throughout the day as traders remained optimistic after the economic survey released earlier in the day projected economic growth would be 7.0-7.5% in the year starting in April, up from a projected 6.75% for the current fiscal year. But the survey also noted a pause in general government fiscal consolidation relative to 2016-17 cannot be ruled out, sending benchmark 10-year bond yields up 4 basis points to 7.52% from its previous close. It added that, gross value added is likely to grow at 6.1% in FY18 against 6.6% in FY17 and Industry growth is likely to be at 4.4% for the current fiscal year.

Traders also took some encouragement with the government expecting tax collections to improve in the coming months as measures to raise compliance have begun to show results. The total collections for December rose to Rs 86,703 crore, as on January 24. GST receipts had slipped to Rs 80,808 crore in November from more than Rs 83,000 crore in October and over Rs 92,000 crore in September. Some support also came with report that the share of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) in domestic capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) has jumped to a six-month high of over Rs 1.5 lakh crore at the end of December after declining in the month of November, despite stringent norms put in place by markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to check their misuse. This is the highest level since June when the cumulative value of such investments stood at Rs 1.65 lakh crore. Separately, a private report enlightened that the government is expected to continue its fiscal consolidation at a slower pace in the ensuing budget with a fiscal deficit target of 3.2% of GDP for 2018-19. The street shrugged off the private report that India’s factory output growth in December 2017 is projected to come down to 5.5-6%, from a 17-month high of 8.4% in November last year.

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in red after a business survey showed that uncertainty over Britain’s future trading relations with the European Union after Brexit is the most serious threat to London as the world’s top financial center. Asian markets closed mostly in green, amid upbeat corporate earnings and strong global economic growth. China’s senior official at the country’s top economic planner said that the economic growth will likely slow to 6.5-6.8 percent this year, while warning about the risks of Black Swan and Gray Rhino events.

Back home, investors took note that ahead of the Budget, the government has increased the incentive on more than a hundred products including traditional exports like leather, marine, yarn and wool. The benefit in form of higher duty drawback on 102 items is expected to boost exports and also ease the liquidity crunch faced by exporters after the rollout of the GST. On the sectoral front, telecom stocks Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications ended in red after Reliance Jio announced the lowest rental plan of Rs 49 in which it will offer unlimited voice and data for 28 days for JioPhone subscribers, effective January 26. Meanwhile, Newgen Software Technologies made a decent listing on the BSE and went home with a gain of over 3%.

FII’s Activity 23rd -Jan-18

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9217.57 crore against gross selling of Rs 7871.36 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1346.21 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1302.28 crore with gross sales of Rs 346.11 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 956.17 crore in debt.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.36 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 2.00 crore in hybrid segment.

Now what to expect ??

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Nifty Levels 

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Above 11130.... rally remain continue till 11240---11360 mark

Fresh selling will do only close below 11000 mark

Trade with levels only 

Bank Nifty 

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Above 27650 will see rally till 27800---27900 mark else could touch its support level of 27200 again

Daily Derivative Outlook 30th January 2018

Nifty (February) futures closed at a Premium of 7.25 points versus a Discount of 7.05.

GODREJCP (19%), HDIL (18%), HEXAWARE (18%), JINDALSTEL (16%) and PCJEWELLER (16%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.

MARUTI (-8%), VGUARD (-7%), PIDILITIND (-7%), ADANIENT (-6%) and UPL (-4%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.

Maximum call buying was seen at Nifty 10800 strike and maximum put buying was seen at Nifty 11000 strikes.

Maximum positions are at 12000 CE and 11000 PE.

The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.42 for February month contract.

Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.54, Advance (75) + Decline (139) + Unchanged (3) = 217

Derivative Idea (30-01-2018)

PETRONET losses around -2.4% of open interest as short unwinding on Monday’s trade. 

Hurdle at 252, Above 252 rally remain continue till 265—268 and then to 275++ mark else could touch its support level of 240.00

Fresh selling can be initiated below 240.00

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation (30th Jan 2018)

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Buy PETRONET future above 252 with stop loss of 240 for the initial target 265—268 and then to 275++ mark.

KPIT- Top Pick

According to MACD analysis, kpit is marginally weak also super trend giving sell signal in it 

Now what to expect???

On Daily chart, below 208 will see panic till 198--195 in days to come.

Resistance intact at 218.

Any sharp upside rally will be selling opportunity in it.

Trading Recommendation (30th Jan 2018)

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Sell KPIT below 208 with Stop loss above 218 (on a closing basis) Target 198—-195.

Corporate Action-Ex date

Bharti Airtel Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 2.84 Per Share

Results Today

Bharat Electronics Limited

TVS Motor Company Limited

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Reliance Power Limited

Piramal Enterprises Limited

Reliance Naval and Engineering Limited

Jain Irrigation Systems Limited

Indian Oil Corporation Limited

Godrej Consumer Products Limited

Engineers India Limited

 Investment and Finance Company Limited

Bharat Financial Inclusion Limited

More Will Update Soon!!