Monday, January 15, 2018

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 15th Jan 2018

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 15th Jan 2018

Nifty 10681/Sensex 34503/ Bank Nifty 25660

22 Advances / 28 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Markets extend rally for second straight session

Extending northward journey for second straight session, Indian equity benchmarks once again hit all time high levels, with Nifty and Sensex ending just shy of their crucial 10,700 and 34,600 levels, respectively. Markets traded mostly in green during the session though some hiccups witnessed in noon deals but it proved short-lived and key gauges managed to end the session comfortably near their all time high levels. Markets started the day on an optimistic note, as traders remained hopeful ahead of Infosys earnings later today and budget next month. Investors also took some encouragement with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar’s statement that economy is expected to clock growth of 7.5% in 2018. He further noted that as the economy picks up, employment will pick up. Sentiments also remained positive with US-India Strategic Partnership Forum’s (USISPF) report that India's decision to relax FDI norms in various sectors would make it a much more attractive destination for overseas investors. Some support also came with Farm Minister Radha Mohan Singh’s statement that India’s agriculture sector will expand more than 4% in 2017-18, trying to allay concerns raised by the statistical office’s projection of sluggish growth in one of the most important segments of the economy.

However, sharp sell-off witnessed in noon deals and markets entered into red terrain, as anxiety spread among the traders ahead of key economic data - industrial production (IIP) numbers for November and retail inflation for December - to be released later in the day. some concerns also came with India Ratings and Research’s latest report that private sector capital expenditure growth is expected to remain muted with slowing pace, for next two financial years on account of weak domestic consumption demand, global overcapacity and negative impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) on working capital. Markets showed splendid recovery in last leg of trade and settled near fresh all time high levels as traders took some support from private report that economic indicators like PMIs, vehicle sales and steel demand suggest that growth momentum in India has gathered pace in December.

Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments on signs of progress on the German political front and as traders focused on a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports. Asian markets ended mostly in green terrain on Friday with China reporting trade data for December with exports up 10.9%, compared to a gain of 9.1% seen, imports posted a 4.5% rise, compared to a 13.0% increase expected and the trade balance came in at $54.69 billion surplus, compared to surplus of $37 billion seen.

Back home, steel stocks remained on buyers’ radar, as the Union Steel Minister Birender Singh said that exports should account for 6-7 per cent of India’s total steel production in the next few years, up from the 1.5 per cent at present. However, telecom stocks remained under pressure on report that the telecom regulator may reduce international termination rate (ITR) - a charge paid by international operators to local networks that receive calls - by almost half from the current 53 paise a minute, a move that would deal a body blow to India’s top telcos which receive bulk of international calls.

FII’s Activity 12th-Jan-18

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5017.58 crore against gross selling of Rs 5541.05 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 523.47 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1365.55 crore with gross sales of Rs 340.61 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1024.94 crore in debt.
In the hybrid segment, there was no buying against gross selling of Rs 1.42 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1.42 crore in hybrid.

Now what to expect ??

Nifty Levels

Image result for nifty

Support at 10590 and Resistance at 10700

Above 10700 will see rally till 10780---10850 mark else could touch its support level of 10590 again

Trade with levels only 

Bank Nifty 

Image result for bank nifty

Support at 25500 and Resistance at 25780 

Above 25780 will see rally till 26000---26300 mark else could touch its support level of 25500 again 

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 15th January 2018

• Nifty (January) futures closed at a premium of 5.1 points versus a premium of 2.85 points.

• DISHTV (26%), JISLJALEQS (24%), ZEEL (23%), CHOLAFIN (18%) and SHREECEM (17%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.

• MINDTREE (-10%), CGPOWER (-10), JINDALSTEL (-8%), NIIITTECH (-7%) and VOLTAS (-7%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.

• Maximum call buying was seen at Nifty 10600 strike and maximum put writing was seen at Nifty 10700 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 11000 CE and 10500 PE.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.48 for January month contract.

• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.59, Advance (80) + Decline (135) + Unchanged (2) = 217

Derivative Idea (15-01-2018)

SRF gain around 9.7% of open interest as long build up on Friday’s trade. 

SRF has Hurdle at 2030, Break and sustain above 2030 will take it to 2150—2200++ mark in days to come, further upside rally will see on close above 2200 mark else could touch its support level of 1910 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1910

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation(15-01-2018)

Image result for srf logo

Buy SRF future above 2030 with stop loss of 1910 for the initial target 2150--2200 ++ mark

Essel Propack- Top Pick

Marquee clients, strong global presence, robust innovation track record and increasing presence in non-oral care segment will drive strong growth for EPL going ahead. Further, focus on
strengthening capabilities both in terms of market outreach and technology introductions bodes well for the company. 

According to exponential moving average analysis, esselpack is in a strong uptrend.

Now what to expect???

On Daily chart, Hurdle at 300 will see rally till 310---320 in weeks to come.

Support intact at 290.

Any sharp downside panic will be buying opportunity in it.

Trading Recommendation (15th Jan 2018)

Image result for essel propack logo

Buy Essel Propack above 300 with stop loss below 290 (on a closing basis) Target 310—320.

Results Today 

The Federal Bank Limited

More Will Update Soon!!