Agro Commodity Update (19th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean future prices settled the day higher for fourth consecutive session on Thursday supported by good physical demand and lower supplies. Futures Prices have stroked near 16 months high while spot prices have jumped more than 10% in last month. Soybean arrivals during first 15 days in January were noted down 41% to 2.18 lakh tones on year. Moreover, reports on lower inventories compared to last year also supporting prices. According to the latest report of SOPA, soybean inventories with farmers, traders and plant owners at the end of December were stood at 6.5 mt, down from 8.2 mt a year ago. The arrivals have been lower during December as compared to the last year. India's soy meal exports during Oct-Dec were pegged at 579,000 tones, as against 507,000 tones marked a year ago.
Jeera future prices continued to trade lower from last couple of days on fresh selling initiated by market participants tracking weak physical demand. Jeera production may be higher in coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is estimated up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 15-Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time. Jeera arrivals during first 15 days of Jan 18 were noted down to 1280.8 tons on year compared to 5,376 tons due to tight supplies and lower stocks with the stockiest. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat pressurizes prices. As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Sep) is marked at 88,229 tons, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
Technical Aspect
Guarseed (Feb)
Support is at 4150 and Resistance is 4350
Ongoing correction likely to continue till 4150 where once we can expect a good rebound in prices. Buy and accumulate more on decline which may likely to touch 4350 soon. Break and sustain above 4350 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 4350 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Our sell call from 3800-3702 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support is 3690 and Resistance is 3850.
Break and sustain below 3690 will take it to 3650---3505 mark in near terms else could touch resistance levels of 3850.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Our sell call from 4050-4000 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 3980 and resistance is at 4070
Panic likely to continue till 3980. Break and sustain below 3980 will take it to 3930—3900
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4070 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3250 and Resistance is 3380.
We expect positive move likely to continue in near term. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to hit 3380 .Break and sustain above 3380 will see sharp upside rally till 3430—3480 and then 3550++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3250 mark .
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 3980 and Resistance at 4150.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3980. Break and close below 3980 will take it towards 3910—3870 and then 3800 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton
Support is 20600 and Resistance is 21200.
Rally likely to continue till 21200. Break and sustain above 21200 will take it to 21380—21550 mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 20600 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16550 and Resistance is at 16850.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 16550. Break and sustain below 16550 will see sharp panic till 16350—16100 and then 15800 mark.
Fresh buying only can be initiated above 16850 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7450 while Resistance is 7650.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 7450. Decisive move below 7450 will see sharp panic till 7380—7320 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Support seen at 555 while Resistance is 568.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 555. We expect near term positive sentiment in it. It’s likely to hit 568 mark soon. Decisive close above 568 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 555 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
