Agri Commodity Update (17th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean future prices traded moderately higher supported by good physical demand and lower supplies. Moreover, reports on lower inventories compared to last year support higher prices. As per the latest report of SOPA, soybean inventories with farmers, traders and plant owners at the end of December were noted at 6.5 mt, down from 8.2 mt a year ago. The arrivals have been lower during December compared to the last year. The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), India's soymeal exports during December fell 32% on year to 224,000 tonnes from 327,000 tonnes a year ago. Soymeal exports fell for the first time in the current marketing year starting October but exports during Oct-Dec were pegged at 579,000 tonnes, as against 507,000 tonnes a year ago.
Cotton future prices corrected from its recent high as arrivals have improved in the domestic market. Market arrivals of cotton in the first three months of the 2017-18 marketing season starting October are higher by around 43% over corresponding last year. India cotton traders cancel export deals due to higher local prices and country could export only 5 million bales, each of 170kg, in the 2017-18 marketing year started on 1 October nearly a quarter below an initial estimate. The CAI has maintained the crop size for the 2017-18 season at 375 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in its latest estimates. CCI has procured around 5 lakh bales this season of which 4 lakh bales have been procured at MSP and the remaining 1 lakh bales as part of its commercial operations.
Technical Aspect
Guarseed (Feb)
Support is at 4230 and Resistance is 4380.
Short term correction expected till 4230 where once we can expect a good rebound in prices. Buy and accumulate more on decline which may likely to touch 4380 soon. Break and sustain above 4380 will see a sharp upside rally in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4230 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3750 and Resistance is 3900
Either side decisive break or close will set the further trend in it.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 3750 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4150.
Break and sustain below 4050 will take it to 4010—3960 and then 3900 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 4150.
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4150 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3250 and Resistance is 3330.
We expect positive move likely to continue in near term. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to hit 3330 in near term. Break and sustain above 3330 will see sharp upside rally till 3490—3450++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3230 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 3950 and Resistance at 4150.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3950. Break and close below 3950 will take it towards 3910—3870 and then 3800 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton
Support is 20500 and Resistance is 20900.
Looks weak on chart. Break and sustain below 20500 will take it to 20200—19950 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 20900 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16700 and Resistance is at 16980.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 16700. Break and sustain below 16700 will see sharp panic till 16550—16300 and then 16150 mark.
Fresh buying only can be initiated above 16980 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7450 while Resistance is 7650.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 7450. Decisive move below 7450 will see sharp panic till 7380—7320 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Support seen at 558 while Resistance is 568.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 558. We expect near term positive sentiment in it. It’s likely to hit 568 mark soon. Decisive close above 568 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 558 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
