Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Agro Commodity Update (02-Aug-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Turmeric futures traded flat with positive bias on account of uptick in demand at the spot market. Further, expectation of lower arrivals and dry conditions in Telangana also added support to turmeric prices’ uptrend. According to IMD, Telangana received only 9.2 mm rains which is 85% below normal. Moreover, dry condition and slow sowing progress is supporting prices. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 29-Jul-17, up 2.5% to 39,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 40,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 34% in June as compared with the May. As per the market source, about 18,167 tonnes arrived in July as compared with 27,574 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the data release by the government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.

Jeera futures traded lower despite uptick in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies on reports of lower arrivals due to heavy rains in the producing belts of Gujarat. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during the month of July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared with the June arrival report. In June, arrival recorded at 8,072 tonnes. In line, jeera exports in April 2017 was reported at 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016-17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt.

Soybean August futures traded in tight range with lower bias as market participants liquidate their long positions on anticipation of lower crushing demand as government has cut tariff rates of palm oil for the next fortnight. As per the government data, soybean planting fell 10.3% to 95.7 lakh hectares compared with the same period last year. Last year, the acreage was 106.7 lakh hectares. Sowing of soybean fell so far during the period due to a drop in acreage in Madhya Pradesh, the country's largest producer of soybean, as most farmers shifted to more profitable crops such as cotton due to poor returns from oilseeds last year.

Refined Soy Oil Aug futures traded a bit positive tracking cues from strong physical demand in domestic market and surge in prices in international markets. Moreover, increase in tariff rates for the next fortnight too support prices. However, higher stock levels in the domestic market may keep prices under pressure. The base import price of crude soyoil has been hike by $8 to $820 per tonne for the first half of August. Base import prices of edible oils are revised every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. The prices were last revised on Jul 14. As per the latest report of SEA, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from Nov-May to 16.10 lt as compared with the 24.22 lt noted in the last year for same period.

Mentha oil futures traded higher on MCX as engaged in building up their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on strong demand. Further, tight stock position following a fall in arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too fuelled the uptrend in it.

Technical Aspect

Jeera (Aug) 

Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19450.

Looks weak and likely to touch 18700. Break and close below 18700 will see more downside panic in it else, could touch its resistance level of 19450.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 19450.

Trade with levels only.

Castor Seed (Aug)

Support at 4400 and Resistance at 4515.

Break and close below 4400 with volume will take it to 4360---4330 mark in near term else, could touch its resistance level of 4515.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 4515 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric (Aug)

Last week we clearly indicated that if prices unable to hold below 6750 then there is a chance of bottom out in it.

Look what happen to it... Skyrocketed and made a fresh high of 7682 yesterday.

Now Support seen at 7450 and Resistance is 7700.

We will maintain our bullish in it and every decline towards 7450 can accumulate more. Break and sustain above 7700 will take it to 7850---8000++mark again in near term else, could touch its support level of 7450.

Fresh selling can be seen below 7450 on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.

Guar seed (Oct)

Support at 3580 and Resistance at 3650.

Break and sustain below 3580 with volume will take it to 3530---3470 mark in near term else, could touch its resistance level of 3650.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3650 only.

Trade with levels only.

Soya bean (Aug)

Support seen at 2960 and Resistance is at 3080.

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2990 for the upside level of 3050---3080.

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2960.

Trade with levels only.

Soyaref (Aug)

Support at 640 and resistance is 653.

Will accumulate the fresh position on every decline till 645 which will take it to 657---662++mark in near term.

Fresh selling can be seen below 640.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya (Aug)

Support at 4750 and resistance is 4950.

Now what to expect?

Either side close with volume will decide the further direction in it.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed (Aug)

Support seen at 3670 and resistance seen at 3725.

Break and sustain above 3725 will take it to 3780---3820 and then 3870++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3670.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3670.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (Aug)

Support is 1120 and Resistance is 1150

 Break and sustain above 1150 will take it to 1190---1220++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1120 again

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1120 mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!