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Friday, September 22, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 22nd September 2017





Gold futures edged higher on MCX due to a firming trend overseas where gold rebounded from a four-week low as the latest twist in tensions between the US and North Korea prompted investors to seek out the safe-haven asset.


Crude oil futures snapped their rally mood and ended lower on Thursday ahead of the Opec meeting and traders continued to weigh data showing a sharp rise in U.S. crude production and stockpiles. Some strength in dollar too weighed on the sentiments after the Federal Reserve suggested a rate hike is imminent. Also, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. Meanwhile, Opec and other major producers will meet Friday in Vienna to discuss the market impact of the production-cut agreement and progress toward rebalancing supply and demand.


Copper futures traded lower on MCX as speculators trimmed positions, amid muted demand at the domestic spot markets. Moreover, weak trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME) where copper and other base metals weakened also weighed on copper futures.


Technical Level


Gold


Support at 29550 and Resistance 29800

Below 29550 panic remain continue till 29200—29050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 29800 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 29800 mark only.



Silver


Support at 39500 and Resistance 40000---40350

Trend looks weak and could touch its support level of 39500, Below 39500 panic remain continue till 39200—39000 mark else could touch its resistance level of 40000---40350 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 40350 mark



Crude



Support at 3250 and Resistance at 3325

Break and sustain above 3325 will take it to 3380—3400++ mark else could touch its support level of 3250 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3250 mark.



Natural Gas


Below 190, panic remain continue till 187.00---184.00 mark else could touch its resistance level of 196.00

Fresh buying can be initiated above 196.00


Copper



Support at 417.00, Break and sustain below 417 will take it to 412—409 mark else could touch its resistance level of 423.00

Fresh buying can be initiated above 428.00









More will update soon !!

Currency Update 22 Sep 2017. (Medium-Long term outlook)





Rupee slides with bonds as fiscal deficit concerns rise…

India’s rupee sank the most since May and sovereign bonds slumped on concern the nation’s fiscal deficit will widen after the government said it was considering measures to boost growth. Policy makers are studying economic indicators and appropriate action will be taken at the right time, the finance minister stated during speech at an event. Concerns about India’s public finances heightened as the government was weighing a stimulus package of Rs40, 000 crore ($6.2 billion).
India’s fiscal deficit already reached 92% of the budget estimate in the first four months of the financial year that began 1 April, according to the Controller General of Accounts.



Technical Aspect

USDINR





As visible in the daily chart, sharp recovery has been seen from its recent bottom of Rs.63. 57 and prices give a smart break out above its major trend line resistance of Rs.64.60. Now prices are able to close above its 23.6% retrenchment (Rs.64.80) (Extension 63.57—68.88) along with strong base formation in the range of Rs.64—63.50, which is clearly showing that it is a just a beginning of rally. Break and sustain above Rs.64.80 with high volume will take it towards Rs.65.60—66.80 and then 68.30++ mark in near term. Support will remain at Rs.64—63.50 over the medium term.
Technical Oscillators like MACD (12, 26, 9), ADX (14) also showing a positive diversion in the chart while, RSI-14(78) is hovering in overbought territory where once can put pressure on prices.
Traders don’t go for aggressive positional selling in it. Trend is positive and any correctional decline till Rs.64.50—64.00 will be a golden buying opportunity in it for the above mentioned levels. Enjoy the rally.


EURINR





As visible on the weekly chart, EURINR has given a fresh breakout above Rs.78.00 level. We have seen a sharp upside rally from 68.00 in it, Weekly close above 78.00 will take to 80.50—82.00 and then to 84.00++ mark in days to come, else could touch its support level of 76.00.Momentum oscillators like MACD and ADX also supporting our view in it while, while RSI is trading in oversold zone which indicate upside momentum is certain in it. Alternatively, break and close below 76.00 will negate our bullish sentiment in it.
Traders don’t go for aggressive positional selling as trend looking positive. Any correctional decline till Rs.76 will be buying opportunity for the above upside level of 80.50—82 and then 84++mark.




GBPINR





As visible on the weekly chart, after a long time we have seen a strong break near Rs.85 and prices formed a three while shoulder pattern which is clearly showing that the upside momentum likely to continue in the chart. Now prices are able to trade in positive territory and any correctional decline till Rs.86 will be a buying opportunity in it. Technical Oscillators like MACD (12, 26, 9), ADX (14) also showing a positive diversion in the chart while, RSI-14(78) is hovering in overbought territory where once a bit pressure can be seen on it.
Traders can make long position here and can accumulate more in panic for the upside level of 90—93.30 and then 96.50++ mark in near term. Support will remain at 85 mark in short to medium term.
  

JPYINR






JPYINR trading in a range of Rs.60.00—56.00. Minor Hurdle at 58.50, Break and sustain above Rs.58.50 will take it to Rs.60.00—60.20. Three consecutive close + weekly close above Rs.60.20 will see sharp upside rally till Rs.62.00—64.00++ mark in days to come, else could touch its support level of Rs.56.00. Fresh selling can be initiated only below Rs.56.00 only. On seeing weekly chart JPYINR is consolidation around 61.8% of retracement level from top of Rs.69.00.

















More will update soon !!

Update on Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 22nd Sept 2017




Nifty 10121 /Sensex 32370/ Bank Nifty 24799

 17 Advances / 33 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Benchmarks trim losses to end flat; extend consolidation for third straight day
Erasing their initial losses, Indian equity benchmarks ended the session flat with negative bias and extended their consolidation for third straight day on Thursday. After making a decent start, markets witnessed sharp sell-off which dragged key gauges below their crucial 32,200 (Sensex) and 10,100 (Nifty) levels in early deals, as traders turn concerned with report that advance tax payments by top corporate for September quarter has increased only marginally. Adding to the pessimism, a survey found that optimism level among India’s Chief Financial Officers during July-September touched a one and half year low amid concerns related to subdued demand and strain on corporate balance sheet. The Composite CFO Optimism Index for the September quarter of this year declined by 11% year-on-year and by 5.7% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
However, markets got support near those psychological levels and started trimming their losses with traders taking solace after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley hint at a package of measures to boost the economy, while virtually ruling out any cut in duties on petroleum products to check the spike in fuel prices. Jaitley said the government is considering additional measures to bolster economy that has hit a three-year low of 5.7 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal. He said an announcement with regard to the additional steps will be made after consulting Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Traders also get some comfort with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim’s statement that India has been growing pretty ‘robustly’ and predicted a strong global growth this year.
Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments as banking shares drove the bourses higher. German’s Finance Ministry said that the country’s economy weakened at the start of the third quarter after a strong performance in the first half of the year, but indicators suggest its solid growth will continue. However, Asian markets ended mostly in red, digesting the Fed views on rates and the latest Bank of Japan review.
Back home, Pharma stocks edged higher as traders paid no heed on reports that some drugs used in the treatment of cancer, hepatitis B, tuberculosis, measles and malaria are expected to get cheaper as the country’s drug pricing watchdog has limited their maximum prices. The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) said it has fixed and revised the ceiling prices of 39 drug formulations. The move is expected to slash prices of some of these drugs, like Hepatitis B immunoglobulin, by as much as 20%. However, auto stocks edged lower despite Moody’s Investors Service in its latest report stated that car sales in India are expected to grow by 9% this year riding on the back of GST regime as well as new product launches.


FII’s Activity 21-Sept-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6311.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 7197.13 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 885.88 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 439.19 crore with gross sales of Rs 270.53 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 168.66 crore in debt.


Now what to expect??


Image result for happy friday


Nifty Levels

Image result for nifty


Nifty Levels above 10200 will see more upside rally till 10400---10500 marks else it could test its support level of 10050 again.

Below 10050 will see more downside panic till 9980.

 Trade with levels only



Daily Derivative Outlook 22nd September 2017


• Nifty (Sep) futures closed at a Premium of 16.95 points versus a premium of 26.40 points 

• Maximum call writing seen at 10100, Maximum put writing seen at 10100.

• Maximum positions are at 10200 CE and 10000 PE. 

• TORNTPHARM (35%), STAR (22%), AJANTPHARM (20%), WOCKPHARM (16%) and RELCAPITAL (13%) were the top gainers in in the market.

• MFSL (-10%), DIVISLAB (-10%), JUSTDIAL (-8%), ANDHRABANK (-8%) and NIITTECH (-7%) were the top losers in open interest in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.52 for September month contract.


Derivative Idea (22-09-2017)

Voltas gain around 3.7% of open interest as short build up on Thursday’s trade. It has also breach its immediate support level of 535 on the lower side with noticeable rise in volume.

Now what to expect??

Break and sustain below 535.00 will take it to 515--508 and then to 500++ mark in days to come.

Hurdle and stop loss above 548.00

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.


Trading Recommendation (22-09-2017)

Sell VOLTAS (SEPT) future below 535.00 Stop loss 548.00 on closing basis) Target 515.00—508.00 and then to 500.00++ mark.




NIIT Technologies - Top Pick


In NIIT Technologies, a very good pricing volume breakout has been taking place. The lowest price in 52 weeks was Rs. 370 while highest in 52 weeks was Rs. 601.00.
Price just got above its 50-day simple moving average which is a positive signal. According to simple moving average analysis, niittech is in an uptrend.


Now what to expect???

NIIT Technologies break and sustain above 540 will see upside rally till 560—570 mark in days to come. 

Looks bearish only if close below 520 marks. 
Any sharp downside panic will be buying opportunity in it.



Trading Recommendation (22nd September 2017)

Buy NIIT Technologies above 540 with stop loss of 520 (on a closing basis) Target 560---570











More Will Update Soon!!

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 21st September 2017





Gold futures ended higher o the Federal Reserve indicated the possibility of an additional rise in interest rates this year.n Wednesday amid speculation the Federal Reserve will signal concerns over stubbornly low inflation and 

Crude oil futures shrugging off the report of significant build in US oil inventories, ended higher on Wednesday. Inventory data was overshadowed by growing expectations that Opec will decide to extend its agreement to cut oil output. Meanwhile, a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude stockpiles rose by roughly 4.6m barrels in the week ended Sept. 15. Gasoline inventories, fell by roughly 2.13m barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 5.7m barrels, topping expectations of a decline of 1.6m barrels.


Copper futures ended unchanged on Wednesday as the market participants were awaiting the conclusion of the US Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting with its economic projections, statement, rate decisions and press conference.


Technical Level


Gold



Support at 29400 and Resistance 29650

Below 2900 panic remain continue till 29200—29050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 29650 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 29650 mark only.




Silver




Support at 39600 and Resistance 40000

Below 39600 panic remain continue till 39200—39000 mark else could touch its resistance level of 40000

Fresh buying can be initiated above 40000




Crude



Support at 3250 and Resistance at 3300

Break and sustain above 3300 will take it to 3350—3380++ mark else could touch its support level of 3250 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3250 mark.




Natural Gas




Hurdle at 200.50, Above 200.50 rally remain continue till 203---205++ mark.

Support at 198.50

Fresh selling can be initiated below 198.50


Copper



Hurdle at 424, Break and sustain above 424.00 will take it to 428—430 and then to 433++ mark else could touch its support level of 417.00

Fresh selling can be initiated below 417.00





Economic Data


06:00 P.M Unemployment Claims: Previous 284K, Expected 302K, Actual??

Increase in Unemployment claim – will have negative impact on dollar index and positive impact on bullion or vice versa.


08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage: Previous 91B, Expected 93B, Actual??

Increase in Natural Gas Storage – will have negative on natural gas prices or vice versa.












More will update soon!!