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Friday, February 16, 2018

Commodity Alert: Zinc, nickel prices leading the metals complex high







Commodity Alert: Zinc, nickel prices leading the metals complex high


Metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up across the board, by an average of 0.4%, while trading activity has been light due to the Lunar New Year holiday.Lead prices are up by the most in percentage terms, with a 0.7% rise, followed by aluminium (0.6%) copper (0.4%) , with nickel and tin prices up 0.35 and zinc little changed. With the Lunar New Year break under way, volume has been light with 2,122 lots traded. Exchanges remain closed in China for the Lunar New Year holiday and will not reopen until Thursday February 22.























More Will Update Soon!!!





Commodity Alert :Gold edges higher as dollar hits two-week low






Commodity Alert :Gold edges higher as dollar hits two-week low




Gold was on track for its fourth straight session of gains as the U.S. dollar slid to its lowest in two weeks on concerns about the impact of high U.S debt levels and tax cuts. The higher rates will come as a product of inflationary pressures from the $1.5 trillion infrastructure rebuilding and the rebuilding of Florida, Texas, California. The greenback has been hit by several setbacks this year, ranging from the possibility Washington might pursue a weak dollar strategy to the perceived erosion of its yield advantage as other countries end their easier monetary policy.    Concerns about the growing U.S. fiscal deficit have also weighed on the currency.     Inflation fears boost gold, which is seen as a safe haven against rising prices. But expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to fight inflation make gold less attractive since it is not interest-yielding.





Source : Reuters












More Will update Soon!!!





Agro Commodity Update (16th Feb-2018)






Agro Commodity Update (16th Feb-2018) 


Fundamental Aspect:


Soybean future prices fell yesterday mainly due to profit booking tracking noticed at higher level along with weak physical demand at this rate leads to disparity in meal prices for exports. According to data released by Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India exported 76,089 tn of oil meal in January, down 51% on year. But the export volume is higher by 69% for the period Apr-Jan at 10.14 lt. Last week, trade body, SOPA cuts soybean production by nearly 10 lakh tonnes to 83.5 lakh tonnes (lt) for 2017/18 crop. It now estimates, soy bean carryover stock is 13 lt, which is added to the crop size of 83.5 lt, thereby making the overall availability of the oilseed at 96.5 lt. Soybean stock with farmers, traders and mills is estimated at 45.32 lt as of January.

Chana Mar futures traded down in last couple of days tracking weak demand in physical market as traders are waiting for new season chana. There are reports of damage to chana crop in Maharashtra due to hail storm. Recently, to discourage imports, government raised import duty on chana to 40% from 30%. Still, futures have been trade below MSP. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 8.3% on year at 107.2 lakh ha as on last week. Moreover, higher imports during the current financial year too pressurize prices. As per government data, India imported about 7.46 lt of chana during Apr-Nov, up by 200% compared the last year imports. The imports were mostly done from Australia.




Technical Aspect  



Guar seed





Our sell call from 4580—4332 has proven great.

Now what to expect?

Support is at 4300 and Resistance is 4450.

Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 4300 will see further downside fall till 4240—4150 and then to 4000 mark in near term. 

Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 4450 mark

Trade with levels only.




Chana (March)




Our sell call from 3800—3725 has proven great.

Now what to expect?

Support is 3700 and Resistance is 3850

Panic likely to continue till 3700. Break and sustain below 3700 will take it towards 3630—3550 mark in near term

Fresh buying can be seen on close above 3850.

Trade with levels only.





RM Seed (April)



Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4200.

 Break and sustain below 4050 will take it to 3970--3920 and then 3850 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4150 mark.

Trade with levels only.





Soybean (March)




Support seen at 3700 and Resistance is 3850.

 Break and sustain below 3700 will take it towards 3630—3550 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 3850 mark.

Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850.

Trade with levels only.





Castor Seed (March)




Support at 4050 and Resistance at 4150

Above 4150 rally likely to continue till 4230—4300 and then 4360++ mark else could touch its support level of 4050.

Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 4050.

Trade with levels only.





Cotton (March)




Support is 19800 and Resistance is 20200.

Below 19800 panic likely to continue till 19650—19500 and then 19320 mark in near term .

Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 20200.

Trade with levels only.






Jeera (March)





Support seen at 15800 and Resistance is at 16350

Below 15800 panic likely to continue till 15550—15300 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 16350 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 16350 on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.





Turmeric (Apr)




Support is 7200 while Resistance is 7350

Break and sustain below 7200 will take it towards 7040—6900 and then 6750 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7350.

Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7350.

Trade with levels only.





CPO (March)




Support seen at 572 while Resistance is 585.

Buy and accumulate as its likely to be a safe bet in near term. Break and sustain above 585 will take it towards 594—608 mark in near term.

Fresh selling only can be initiated below 572 mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only





















More Will update Soon!!!!










Currency Report 16th Feb 2018







Currency Levels Update 16th Feb 2018



 Exhibiting strength against the dollar for the third straight day, Indian rupee ended higher on Thursday on continued selling of the greenback. Sentiments remained optimistic on report that Inflation based on wholesale prices eased to a six-month low of 2.84% in January on cheaper food articles even as vegetable prices continued to rule high. Calculated on the basis of Wholesale Price Index (WPI), the inflation was 3.58% in December 2017 and 4.26% in January 2017. Some support also came with private report stating that the RBI’s revised framework for quicker and time-bound resolution of stressed assets is a long-term positive for banks. The report stated that the new framework has the potential to bring about a big change in the approach of banks to monitor their exposures and resolution of NPAs. Besides, a muted show by the dollar against other currencies overseas also supported the rupee’s uptrend. 
On the global front, dollar lost further ground against yen on Thursday, hitting new 15-month lows, after US consumer price data for January fueled worries about accelerating inflation in the country.




USDINR 



Support at 63.90 and Resistance at 64.20

Below 63.90 panic remain continue till 63.70—63.60 else could touch its resistance level of 64.20

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.20

Trade with levels only.





GBPINR



Support at 90.00 and Resistance at 90.35

Above 90.35 rally likely to continue till 90.80—91.20 mark else it could touch its support level of 90.00 again

Fresh selling can be initiated below 90.00





EURINR





Support at 80 and Resistance at 80.60

Above 80.25 rally likely to continue till 80.45—80.60 mark 

Fresh selling can be initiated below 80.00





JPYINR




Support at 60.00 and Resistance at 60.30

Above 60.30 rally likely to continue till 60.50—60.60 else could touch its support level of 60.00

Fresh selling can be initiated below 60.00



















More Will update soon!!








Morning News Headlines






Morning News Headlines 



The economic Times


● ED steps up heat on Nirav Modi, jewellery worth Rs 5,100 cr seized

● PNB gives CBI list of 150 LoUs issued to Nirav Modi

● India's exports fall in January, so do imports

● Policy to scrap old vehicles almost finalised: Gadkari

● PW can carry out audit work till March 2019: SAT




The Mint




● Govt to come out with new pharma policy: Ananth Kumar

● MF investors to get LTCG info from CAMS from April

● Online consumer spends to hit $100 bn by 2020: Report

● Centre to change base year for GDP, IIP to 2017-18

● SGX seeks Shenzhen-type linkage with GIFT





The Business Standard




● Shut down or consolidate PSU banks: Anil Singhvi 

● Govt drops the idea of an India EV policy

● Fortis case: Supreme Court allows financial institutions to sell pledged shares

● Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Eicher ramp up truck manufacturing eyeing infra 

● Axis Bank sells down transactions against LoUs issued by PNB





The Hindu Business Line



● Jewellery stocks fall after PNB fraud, Gitanjali Gems shares tank over 18%

● January trade deficit widens to $16.30 bn; exports rise 9%

● RBI ready to inject additional liquidity into banks by March end

● Aster DM Healthcare Rs 9.8-bn IPO subscribed 1.33 times on final day

● Tata Steel top bidder for Bhushan Power, beats JSW with Rs 170-bn offer






Sources : Economics Times, Mint, The Business Standard & The Hindu Business Lines.




















More Will Update Soon!!!!!








Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 16th Feb 2018



Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 16th Feb 2018



Nifty 10545 /Sensex 34155 / Bank Nifty 25424

30 Advances /19 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Benchmarks end higher on easing WPI inflation



Thursday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks, with frontline gauges settling just shy of their crucial 10,550 (Nifty) and 34,300 (Sensex) levels. Markets after an optimistic start gained momentum and traded jubilantly on private report that the RBI’s revised framework for quicker and time-bound resolution of stressed assets is a long-term positive for banks. The report stated that the new framework has the potential to bring about a big change in the approach of banks to monitor their exposures and resolution of NPAs. Markets managed to reconquer their psychological 10,600 (Nifty) and 34,500 (Sensex) levels in noon deals after India's inflation on wholesale level softened for the second consecutive month in January 2018. Wholesale price inflation (WPI) stood at 2.84 percent (provisional) in January as against 3.58 percent (provisional) for the previous month and 4.26 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 2.30 percent compared to a build up rate of 4.55 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year.


Despite some profit booking in last leg of trade, markets managed to end the session with a gain of around half a percent as sentiments remained up-beat with Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian’s statement that although India has made a lot of progress towards achieving financial inclusion, a lot more needs to be done. He added that providing essential goods and services to citizens was only the first policy step towards financial inclusion. Meanwhile, a private report highlighted that consumption is reviving as the effect of demonetization fades and companies get used to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), with some recording multi-quarter highs in volume and sales in the October-December period, exceeding street expectations.


Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments, as investors appeared to take stronger-than-anticipated US inflation data in their stride. Asian markets ended mostly in green, led by around one and a half percent gain in Japanese Nikkei despite the country’s core machinery orders tumbled in December at the fastest pace in more than three years.


Back home, a report showed that India Inc reported strong earnings growth in the December 2017 quarter after declines in the previous two quarters. This was largely expected given the lower base effect due to demonetization in the year-ago quarter. In the December quarter, net profit of a sample of 2,043 companies rose to a six quarter high of 27.5% year-on-year. Net sales rose by 11.5%. After excluding oil and gas companies along with banks and finance entities, sales and profit growth in the December 2017 quarter was 8.8% and 25%, respectively. In scrip specific development, Punjab National Bank (PNB) continued to remain under pressure after Enforcement Directorate reportedly told that PNB fraud is bigger than Rs 11,000 crore. Enforcement Directorate is likely to soon get in touch with other banks involved. Apart from PNB, Union Bank, Axis Bank, Allahabad Bank and SBI Overseas Bank are involved in the fraud.



FII’s Activity 15th-Feb-18


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.


In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6464.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 7063.33 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 599.02 crore in equities.


In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 755.10 crore with gross sales of Rs 2362.33 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1607.23 crore in debt.


In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.14 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.47 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net seller of Rs 0.33 crore in hybrid segment.



Now what to expect ??



Image result for happy friday quotes



Nifty Levels 


Image result for nifty


Resistance at 10600 and support at 10450. 

 Break and close above 10600 will take it to 10750---10820 mark else it could test it's support level of 10450 again

Trade with levels only



Bank Nifty 


Image result for nifty bank

Support at 25250. Break and sustain below 25250 will take it to 25000---24900.

Resistance intact at 25600

Trade with levels only




Daily Derivative Outlook 16th February 2018


Nifty (February) futures closed at a Premium of 5.70 points versus a Discount of 5.70.

APOLLOHOSP (22%), PNB (20%), REPCOHOME (11%), DCBBANK (10%) and APOLLOTYRE (9%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest

NESTLEIND (-20%), CANFINHOME (-14%), CEATLTD (-12%), ORIENTBANK (-9%) and BANKINDIA (-9%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.

Maximum call writing was seen at Nifty 10600 strike and maximum put writing was seen at Nifty 10500 strikes.

Maximum positions are at 11100 CE and 10000 PE.

The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.13 for February month contract.
Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.53, Advance (73) + Decline (139) + Unchanged (5) = 217



Derivative Idea (16-02-2018)

Apollo Hospital gain around 22.00% of open interest as long build up on Thursday’s trade. 

Above 1220 rally remain continue till 1300—1330++ mark else could touch its support level of 1150

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1150

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.


Trading Recommendation (16 Feb 2018)


Image result for Apollo Hospital


Buy Apollo Hospital future above 1220 with stop loss of 1150 for the initial target 1300—1330++ mark.



Corporate action-Ex-date



Marico Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 2.50 Per Share (Purpose Revised)

National Aluminium Company Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 4.70 Per Share (Purpose Revised)

Hexaware Technologies Limited-Interim Dividend Re 1/- Per Share

Sun TV Network Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 2.5 Per Share (Purpose Revised)













More will update soon!!