Agro Commodity Report (01 Feb 2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean future prices slipped in past two trading session due to long liquidation noted by the market participants at higher prices. Though, prices have been supported due to downward revision in soybean production form the top two producing states is mainly due to uneven rains during the monsoon season. Maharashtra also cut its soybean production by almost 16% to 38.6 lakh tonnes (Vs 46.23 lt last year) this year. Earlier, Madhya Pradesh has lowered its estimate for soybean production in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) by 23% to 53 lakh tonnes from 69 lt projected in the first advanced estimate.
Guar complex future prices hovering near to its highest level since Jan’16 and may likely to move up further due to its supportive fundamentals. Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been higher by 42% y/y till Nov as India exported about 321000 tonnes of gum till Nov,2017 since April,2017 vs 226000 tons for the corresponding period of last year. *As per the trader source, Arrivals have been shrinking gradually ruling below to 20000 bags on daily basis and expected to fall further which may help prices to trade on positive bias today. Farmers are avoiding bulk selling in anticipation of better price realization as overall production for year 2017-18 is expected to fall unusually. Rajasthan government forecasted higher production for year 2017 -18 pegged at 16.76 lakh tones in its first advanced estimates higher by 19% compare to last year.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Feb)
Support is at 4550 and Resistance is 4750.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 4550 which will take it to 4680---4750 mark. Break and close above 4750 will take it towards 4820—4950++ mark.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4550 marks.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3750 and Resistance is 3850
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3750 mark. Break and close below 3750 will take it to 3680—3600 and then 3550 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4150 and resistance is at 4250.
Below 4150 panic remain continue. Close below 4150 will take it towards 4070—4020 and then 3950 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4250 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3650 and Resistance is 3850.
If prices unable to breach and close above 3850 then we can expect vertical fall in till 3650. Break and close below 3650 will see more panic in it.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 3850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 4250 and Resistance at 4350
Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4250 will take it to 4170—4120 and then 4050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4350.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 4350 mark .
Trade with levels only.
Cotton (Feb)
Our sell call from 20350—19920 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 19800 and Resistance is 20200.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 19800 will take it to 19550—19300 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 20200 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16300 and Resistance is at 16700.
Buy and accumulate. Break and sustain above 16700 will see sharp upside rally towards 16980—17250 and then 17600++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 16300 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7100 while Resistance is 7300.
Looks positive on chart. Break and close above 7300 will take it towards 7450—7600++mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 7100 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Our sell call from 571---564 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 562 while Resistance is 575.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 562 will take it towards 556—545 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be initiated above 575 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon !!
