Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 29th Jan 2018
Nifty 11069 /Sensex 36050/ Bank Nifty 27445
24 Advances / 26 Declines/ 0 Unchanged
Benchmarks end lower on F&O expiry
Snapping six day winning streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended the January F&O expiry session on pessimistic note with marginal cut on Thursday, as traders opted to remain on sidelines ahead of Union Budget 2018-19, to be announced on February 1, 2018. Markets made cautious start to the day as traders shrugged off private report which enlightened that waning effects from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) impact will help push the Indian GDP growth to 7% in FY19. The report added that the growth has slid from previous year’s 7.1% to 6.5% in FY18 due to the implementation of the GST. But as some of the short-run disruptions caused by GST got ironed out, the firm expects growth to rise in the next couple of years. Traders also paid no heed to report that the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) notified easing of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rules for several sectors, including single brand retail, non-banking financial companies and construction. On January 10, in big bang reforms ahead of the BJP government’s last full Budget, the Union Cabinet had allowed 100% FDI in single brand retail and construction development under the automatic route.
Investors took note that a day after PM spoke about Climate Change at Davos, a biennial report by Yale and Columbia Universities has ranked India among the bottom five countries on the Environmental Performance Index 2018, plummeting 36 points from 141 in 2016. The street took note that petrol and diesel prices have touched new highs in Delhi NCR and other metros on Wednesday. Petrol was sold at Rs 72.43 per litre in Delhi, the highest in three years. In Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, petrol was sold at Rs 75.13, Rs 80.30 and Rs 75.12 per litre respectively, also at over three-year high levels. Oil prices have hit their highest since December, 2014, pushed up after US crude inventories posted a 10th straight week of declines and as the dollar continued to weaken.
On the global front, European markets were trading in green in early deals amid investors waiting to see how the European Central Bank would react to a fast-rising euro. Asian markets ended mostly in red, on renewed worries over Donald Trump's America First policies and other protectionist measures like tax cuts.
Back home, public sector banking stocks edged lower after Fitch Ratings highlighted that the government’s Rs 88,139-crore capital infusion in struggling public sector banks (PSBs) should help in part to mitigate risks, but resolution of bad assets and continued high credit costs hinder the sector’s near-term performance. Select domestic pharma companies remained under pressure on ICRA’s report that domestic pharma companies are expected to face pricing pressure by 10-12% on US generic business which may sustain for the next 12 months. This could negatively impact profitability and cash flows before tapering off gradually.
FII’s Activity 25th -Jan-18
The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7920.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 7042.56 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 877.62 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1876.71 crore with gross sales of Rs 1875.85 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 0.86 crore in debt.
In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.20 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.23 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 7.03 crore in hybrid segment.
Now what to expect ??
Nifty Levels
Support at 11000 and Resistance at 11130
Above 11130 will see rally till 11240---11360 mark else could touch its support level of 11000.
Trade with levels only
Bank Nifty
Support at 27200 and Resistance at 27650
Above 27650 will see rally till 27800---27900 mark else could touch its support level of 27200 again
Daily Derivative Outlook 29th January 2018
•Nifty (February) futures closed at a discount of 7.05 points versus a premium of 22.20.
• CHOLAFIN (138%), CIPLA (117%), GAIL (95%), DHFL (85%) and JINDALSTEEL (85%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.
• Maximum call writing was seen at Nifty 11200 strike and maximum put buying was seen at Nifty 10800 strikes.
• Maximum positions are at 12000 CE and 10500 PE.
• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.42 for February month contract.
• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.75, Advance (92) + Decline (123) + Unchanged (0) = 217
Derivative Idea (29-01-2018)
DLF losses around -68.5% of open interest as long unwinding on Thursday’s trade.
DLF unable to breach its resistance level of 265 with stood at 61.8% retracement level from top.
Now what to expect???
DLF has support at 254, Below 254 panic remain continue till 245--240, further downside panic will see below 240
Hurdle and stop loss intact at 267.00
Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.
Trading Recommendation (29th Jan 2018)
Sell DLF future below 254 with stop loss of 267 for the initial target 245--240 mark.
Yes Bank- Top Pick
According to exponential moving average analysis, yesbank is in a strong uptrend.
Now what to expect???
On Daily chart, Hurdle at 367. Above 367 will see rally till 380 in days to come.
Support intact at 355.
Any sharp downside panic will be buying opportunity in it.
Trading Recommendation (29th Jan 2018)
Buy Yes Bank above 367 with stop loss below 355 (on a closing basis) Target 380++.
Corporate Action-Ex date
HCL Technologies Limited-Interim Dividend - Rs 2 Per Share (Purpose Revised)
Results Today
Century Textiles & Industries Limited
Wockhardt Limited
Tech Mahindra Limited
Reliance Communications Limited
IDFC Limited
Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited
More Will Update Soon!!
