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Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Update on Agro Commodity Update (23rd-Jan-2018)




Agro Commodity Update 





Fundamental Aspect:



Soybean rises sharply and closed to 4% higher supported by good physical demand and lower supplies. According to the trader source, Soybean arrivals during first 15 days in January were noted down by 41% to 2.18 lakh tonnes on year. Moreover, reports on lower inventories compared to last year also supporting prices. As per the latest report of SOPA, soybean inventories with farmers, traders and plant owners at the end of December were stood at 6.5 mt, down from 8.2 mt a year ago. India's soymeal exports during Oct-Dec were pegged at 579,000 tonnes, as compared with 507,000 tonnes marked a year ago.



CBOT Soybean futures rises from last couple of days, supported by hopes that export demand for U.S. supplies will remain strong amid concerns about crop development in South America. Brazil's 2017-18 soybean crop harvest is lagging last year's pace and the long-term average for this time of the year, which will result in a sharp reduction in the amount of soy that will be available in the market by the end of January.



Cotton traded moderately higher during past couple of trading session, supported by good demand from the mills and traders. Market arrivals of cotton in the first three months of the 2017-18 marketing season starting October are higher by around 43% over the corresponding last year. India cotton traders cancel export deals due to higher local prices and country could export only 5 million bales (each of 170kg) in the 2017-18 marketing year started on 1 October nearly a quarter below an initial estimate. However, based on the healthy market arrival trend of cotton so far, the CAI has maintained the crop size for the 2017-18 season at 375 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in its latest estimates. 
As per the latest government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 7.9% on year at 105.6 lakh ha as on last week. Current futures have been trading at nearly 3 year low on reports on higher stocks and good sowing progress. India imported about 5.84 lakh tonnes of chana during Apr Oct, up by 430% compared the last year imports.

Technical Aspect  


Guar seed (Feb)



Our buy call from 4320—4400 has proven great.
Now what to expect?


Support is at 4250 and Resistance is 4450.
Rally likely to continue till 4450. Break and sustain above 4450 will see sharp rally till 4520—4580 and then 4650++ mark in near term.


Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4250 mark.
Trade with levels only.



Chana (March)



Support is 3650 and Resistance is 3750


Looks bottom out here. Buy and accumulate more on decline. We expect near term positive sentiment in it.Break and close above 3750 will take it towards 3820—3880 and then 3950++ mark.


Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 3650 mark.
Trade with levels only.



RM Seed (April)



Support seen at 3950 and resistance is at 4080.


Hurdle id 4080. Break and sustain  above 4080 will take it towards 4130—4170 and then 4250++ mark in near term.


Fresh selling can be initiated on close below 3950 mark.
Trade with levels only.


Soybean  



Our buy call from 3250—3499 has proven great.
Now what to expect?


Support seen at 3380 and Resistance is 3500.
Rally likely to continue .Break and sustain above 3500 will see upside rally till 3560—3630 and then 3710++ mark in coming days.


Trade with levels only.




Castor Seed (Feb)


Support at 3970 and Resistance at 4100.


Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3970. Break and close below 3970 will take it towards 3920—3860 and then 3800 mark.


Fresh buying can be initiated above 4100 mark on closing basis.


Trade with levels only.


Cotton 



Support is 20500 and Resistance is 21050.


Buy and accumulate more on decline.Break and sustain above 21050 will take it to 21350—21500 mark in near term.


Fresh selling can be seen on close below 20500 mark.
Trade with levels only.


Jeera (March)



Support seen at 16450 and Resistance is at 16900.


Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 16450. Break and sustain below 16450 will see sharp panic till 16280—16100 and then 15750 mark.


Fresh buying only can be initiated above 16900 on closing basis.


Trade with levels only.



Turmeric (Apr)



Our sell call from 7600—7250 has proven great.


Now what to expect?


Support is 7200 while Resistance is 7400.


Panic likely to continue. Decisive move below 7200 will see sharp panic till 7130—7050 and then 6920 mark in near term.


Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7400 on closing basis.


Trade with levels only.



CPO (Feb)


Support seen at 554 while Resistance is 563.


Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 554. Break and close below 554 will take it towards 549—544 mark in near term else could touch its resistance of 563 mark.

Fresh buying only can be initiated above 563 mark on closing basis.









Trade with levels only