Agro Commodity Report (31st-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean Future prices showed some profit booking activity at higher levels but the ultimate medium-term trend will remain positive backed by the lower production estimated by Maharashtra government to cut its soybean production by almost 16% to 38.6 lakh tonnes (Vs 46.23 lt last year) this year. Earlier, Madhya Pradesh has lowered its estimate for soybean production in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) by 23% to 53 lakh tonnes from 69 lt projected in the first advanced estimate. A downward revision in soybean production form the top two producing states is mainly due to uneven rains during the monsoon season. Soybean arrivals during first 25 days in January were down 40% to 3.68 lakh tonnes on year.
Guar complex future prices hovering near to its highest level since Jan’16 and may likely to move up further due to its supportive fundamentals. Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been higher by 42% y/y till Nov as India exported about 321000 tonnes of gum till Nov,2017 since April,2017 vs 226000 tons for the corresponding period of last year. *As per the trader source, Arrivals have been shrinking gradually ruling below to 20000 bags on daily basis and expected to fall further which may help prices to trade on positive bias today. Farmers are avoiding bulk selling in anticipation of better price realization as overall production for year 2017-18 is expected to fall unusually. Rajasthan government forecasted higher production for year 2017 -18 pegged at 16.76 lakh tones in its first advanced estimates higher by 19% compare to last year.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Feb)
Our buy call from 4320—4730 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is at 4550 and Resistance is 4750.
We expect a bit correction in prices but the ultimate trend would remain positive in near term. Buy and accumulate more on decline till 4550 which will take it to 4680---4750 mark. Fresh rally can be seen on close above 4750.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4550 marks.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3750 and Resistance is 3850
Looks weak on chart . Break and sustain below 3750 will take it to 3680—3630 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4150 and resistance is at 4250.
Below 4150 panic remain continue. Close below 4150 will take it towards 4080—4020 and then 3950 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4250 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Our buy call from 3300---3811 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 3650 and Resistance is 3850.
Uptrend likely to continue in near term. Break and sustain above 3850 will see sharp upside rally till 3940--4050++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 4150 and Resistance at 4350
Buy and accumulate more on decline as its likely to hit 4350 mark. Break and sustain above 4350 will take it to 4420—4500 and then 4580++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton (Feb)
Our sell call from 20350—20060 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 20050 and Resistance is 20400.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 20050 will take it to 19780—19550 and then 19350 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 20400 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16200 and Resistance is at 16550.
Looks weak on chart . Break and sustain below 16200 will see sharp panic till 15950—15700 and then 15450 mark.
Fresh buying only can be initiated above 16550 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7150 while Resistance is 7300.
Panic remain continue below 7150 . Close below 7150 will take it to 7020—6900 and then 6750 mark in near term .
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7300 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Support seen at 565 while Resistance is 580.
We expect a bit correction here till 565 where once buying opportunity can be seen. Break and close above 580 will take it towards 594—608 ++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 565 mark .
Trade with levels only
More will update soon !!
