Agro Commodity Report (30th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean future prices hit 4% upper freeze in last trading session supported by strong cues from physical market. USDA estimated U.S. oilseed production for 2017-18 is estimated at 131.3 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous forecast. SOPA released its first advance estimates for soybean production for year 2017-18 and pegged at 91.46 lakh tonnes compare to 109.92 lakh tonnes of last year. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, soybean production in India for 2017-18 seasons is estimated to be around 12.22 million MT down by 11% Y/Y.
Guar complex future prices hovering near to its highest level since Jan’16 and may likely to move up further due to its supportive fundamentals. Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been higher by 42% y/y till Nov as India exported about 321000 tonnes of gum till Nov,2017 since April,2017 vs 226000 tons for the corresponding period of last year. *As per the trader source, Arrivals have been shrinking gradually ruling below to 20000 bags on daily basis and expected to fall further which may help prices to trade on positive bias today. Farmers are avoiding bulk selling in anticipation of better price realization as overall production for year 2017-18 is expected to fall unusually. Rajasthan government forecasted higher production for year 2017 -18 pegged at 16.76 lakh tones in its first advanced estimates higher by 19% compare to last year.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Feb)
Our buy call from 4320—4730 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is at 4550 and Resistance is 4750.
We expect a bit correction in prices but the ultimate trend would be positive in near term. Buy and accumulate more on decline till 4550 which will take it to 4680---4750 mark. Fresh rally can be seen on close above 4750.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4550 marks.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Our buy call from 3710---3843 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 3720 and Resistance is 3850
Rally likely to continue. Break and sustain above 3850 will take it to 3930—4000++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 3720 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Our buy call from 4150---4226 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 4150 and resistance is at 4250.
Rally likely to continue. Break and sustain above 4250 will take it towards 4330—4450 and then 4580++ mark.
Fresh selling can be initiated on close below 4150 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Our buy call from 3300---3811 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 3650 and Resistance is 3850.
Uptrend likely to continue in near term. Break and sustain above 3850 will see sharp upside rally till 3940--4050++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 4100 and Resistance at 4300.
Looks positive on chart. Buy and accumulate more on decline as its likely to hit 4300 mark. Break and sustain above 4300 will take it towards 4380—4450 and then 4600++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4100 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton (Feb)
Our sell call from 20350—20130 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 20050 and Resistance is 20400.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 20050 will take it to 19780—19550 and then 19350 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 20400 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16200 and Resistance is at 16550.
Break and sustain above 16550 will see sharp upside rally towards 16800—16980 and then 17250++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 16200 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7200 while Resistance is 7400.
Decisive move below 7200 will see sharp panic till 7050—6930 and then 6800 mark else could touch its resistance level of 7400.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7400 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Our buy call from 561---580 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 565 while Resistance is 580.
Rally likely to continue. Break and close above 580 will take it towards 594—608 ++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 565 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon !!
